Letter to the Editor
To the editor,
If you’re afraid the U.S. might be starting a world war, you’re too late.
According to the UN’s World Food Program, if the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz continues into the summer, an additional 45 million people will starve, and possibly die. This number approaches the 50 million civilian casualties of WWII.
Thirty percent of international fertilizer traffic goes through the strait. The production of urea and ammonia are dependent on natural gas with prices increasing 65% and 40% respectively. Delivery by the early planting season is critical, but 12% of a year’s supply is currently stuck in the strait.
In the last couple of years, much of the rich world has reduced foreign food aid as it steps up defense budgets. With the food crisis being more disbursed, it will also be harder to direct that aid.
Russia had been the world’s leading exporter of urea, but much of its production has been targeted by Ukraine. China, the second leading producer, is cutting exports to protect domestic supplies. Qatar Fertilizer Company that produced 14% of the world’s supply has been offline for more than a month.
Compounding the problem, climate scientists think that El Nino will be particularly severe this year causing either excessive drought or rainfall in many regions of food scarcity. Both will lead to decreased crop yields.
The overarching pretext for this man-made tragedy has been protecting Americans from an Iranian nuclear weapon. But Iran doesn’t have one. Even if it did, it lacks the capacity to deliver it to the American homeland, and tactical nuclear weapons against U.S. assets in the middle east would provide little benefit over conventional ones.
Positive regime changes seldom come from bombing. They happen when general improvements in economies and social structure find leadership more amenable to popular demands.
But a year ago the Iranian leadership was beginning to refrain from referring to the U.S. as the “Great Satan”. It was becoming more conciliatory with nuclear talks that had moved from confrontational to transactional. It was encouraging diplomacy that might lead to some sanction relief and economic improvement.
Fear of nuclear war is legitimate and real, but it seems to be misappropriated. In 1953 the Korean War was paused without a formal peace agreement. North Korea has as many as 100 nuclear warheads with the means to target U.S. cities, much less cover the 120 miles between Pyongyang and Seoul. Also, the country is run by a paranoid and murderous absolute dictator.
U.S. “America first” policy combined with a predatory hegemony abroad is leading our Asian allies like Japan and South Korea to consider becoming nuclear states, driving a dangerous arms race prone to misinformation and miscalculation.
Malignant hubris, ignorance, stupidity, and incompetence of leadership come in many forms, but together they can result in global tragedy.
William Culbert, MD
Oak Ridge
